The results of activity of the National Bank of Tajikistan and banking system of the country for 2011, course of implementation of monetary policy, exchange rate of national currency, inflation rate, development of banking system, volume of remittances, deposits and other most important issues of the branch have been discussed at the next press-conference of the National Bank of Tajikistan, taken place on January 19, 2011 in the Republican Press-centre for domestic and foreign journalists.
As M.Holikzoda, Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan has noted in her address to journalists, the analysis of macroeconomic situation and activity of banking system of the republic has shown that instability of prices in the world markets and instability of financial indicators in 2011 have led to increase in inflationary pressure in the country and have to some extent influenced an economy growth. Despite it, for the reporting period a stable growth of macroeconomic indicators and banking system of the country was observed.
1. Macroeconomic indicators
Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The amount of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the reporting period has made TJS 30,1 billion and its real growth has reached 7,4 % in comparison with the same period of previous year
According to data of the Agency on Statistics under the President of the RT, the inflation rate made 9,3 % in 2011 that concerning the similar period of last year is less to 0,5%. It was caused by a rise in prices for foodstuffs on 10,3 %, on-foodstuffs on 7,2% and services on 9,2 %.
M.Holikzoda has informed that an increase has occurred basically due to rise in prices for the imported goods, such as combustible materials, wheat, flour and vegetable oil and also rise in prices for seasonal products. All it, in turn, has caused growth of production costs, which have directly affected a rise in prices for certain goods and products, such as meat and services of passenger transport. (
For information: according to the statistical data of the World Bank, an average price for wheat in the world markets in 2011 has increased in comparison with previous year to 40,7 %, vegetable oil to 40,2 % and oil to 39,3 %).
According to analyses made by experts of the National Bank of Tajikistan in 2011 the rate of core inflation (without influence of external, administrative and seasonal factors) has made 4,4 %.
Exchange rate of Somoni
in relation to US dollar for last period has decreased by 8,1 %, to Russian ruble by 0,6%. The given change has occurred mainly in connection with a rise in prices for basic imported goods (oil products, flour and wheat), which in turn led to increase in demand for foreign currency in the home exchange market in 2 times.
The foreign trade turnover for the reporting period has made USD 4,4 billion and it has increased against the last year to 15,4%. In particular: the export volume has increased to 5,2%, having reached USD 1,3 billion and volume of import has increased to 19,9% and has made USD 3,2 billion. The deficit of trade balance has made USD 1,9 billion that in comparison with the similar period of last year is more for 31,9 %.
Despite considerable changes in the world market and inflationary pressure, a macroeconomic situation in the country has a tendency of stability and considerable strengthening of indicators.
2. Monetary policy
It has been underlined that a tight monetary policy has been implemented last year in connection with stability of financial and economic indicators of the country and growth of inflationary pressure and refinancing rate has been raised from 8,25% to 9,0% per annum. The reserve requirements standards remained without changes and make for deposits in national and foreign currencies 7,0 % and 9,0 % accordingly.
The volume of reserve money as a program indicator as of December 31 of this year has made TJS 3,8 billion and has increased in comparison with the same date of previous year to 28,0 %.
The cash volume in circulation has made TJS 3,0 billion, TJS 22,7 million of which make metal coins. For 2011 it was issued TJS 1,2 billion and TJS 465,3 million of shabby and unsuitable banknotes have been withdrawn from circulation.
3. Development of banking system (recent data)
The number of credit institutions for the reporting period has reached 139 units including 15 banks, 2 non-bank credit institutions, 34 micro credit deposit institutions, 43 micro-lending institutions, 45 micro-lending funds.
It should be noted that an increase in deposits in 2011 has made 21,0 % in compare to last year and has reached TJS 3,9 billion. It is gratifying that deposits of individuals for this period have increased to 41,9 % and have made TJS 2,2 billion. The average weighted interest rates of time deposits in national currency has made 15,67%, in foreign currency – 14,75 %.
Total balances of loans of banking system for the end of reporting period has reached TJS 4,7 bullion that against the similar period of last year is more to 25,3% and 45,5 % of them were loans in national currency and rest 54,5 % were loans in foreign currency.
During the conference it has been noted that an average weighted interest rate of loans to individuals makes 373 days and to legal entities it makes 338 days. The average weighted interest rate of loans issued in national currency has made 22,85%, in foreign currency – 21,91% and average interest rate of loans issued in national currency has increased to 0,9% % and those issued in foreign currency to 0,3% in compare to the previous year.
For this period the amount of small loans has increased in compare to the previous year to 31,1%, having made TJS 2,3 billion.
The total quantity of payments in the republic has increased to 32,7% and has reached 15,5 million units. The total amount of payments has made TJS 183,3 billion, having increased in comparison with last year to 24,1 %
10 banks – emitters of plastic cards functioned in the territory of the republic for last year, they issued 377 420 units of payment cards, an increase makes 2,4 times. Besides, for the reporting period it was observed significant increase in quantity of ATMs for 333 units, cash issuing offices for 335 units and points of sale for 149 units in compare to the previous year.
During the final part of press-conference, which also lasted in the interesting atmosphere, foreign and local journalists have received precise answers the questions. Representatives of mass media in their questions were interested, basically in problems of banking system, inflation rate, increase of shabby banknotes in circulation, exchange rate of national currency, volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the country, establishment of the National Processing Centre, attraction of foreign investments into economy of the republic and incoming remittance of labor migrants.
National Bank of Tajikistan