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  • Яндекс.Метрика

Short macroeconomic review and banking system activity for the first half of 2015

21.07.2015

On July 21 of current year in the conference room of the National Bank of Tajikistan held press conference for domestic and foreign journalists where discussed results of banking system activity in the first half of 2015, implementation of monetary policy, banking system development, rate of inflation, payment systems, deposits, rate of national currency, reorganization of the National Bank of Tajikistan, bank improvement program, results of conducted interviews and other important issues.

As Mr. Jamshed Nurmahmadzoda, Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan has noted that instability of raw materials prices in the world markets, financial risks and geopolitical conflicts in the first half of the year have made negative impact on rates of growth of world economy. As the result, it was observed unstable macroeconomic and financial indicators in the majority countries.

Despite these changes, national economy growth for the reporting period had rather stable tendency.

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1. Macroeconomic indicators

Gross Domestic Product (GDP). For the first half of 2015 GDP volume has reached TJS 19,2 billion and its real growth in compare with the same period of previous year has made 6,4 % (For comparison: in similar period of 2014 the real growth of GDP has made 6,7 %).        

Inflation. As Mr. Jamshed Nurmahmadzoda noted that in January-June of current year the rate of inflation has made 2,6 %, which is less on 1,9 percentage points against similar period of previous. In condition of financial and world economic crisis, decrease in internal demand and population profitableness promoted decrease in inflation rate in the country. The occurred inflation has been caused basically due to rise in prices for foodstuffs of 3,1%, services of 2,8% and non-foodstuffs of 1,7%.

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At the same time, level of annual inflation (for last 12 months) has made 5,5 % which is less on 1,1 percentage points against same period of last year.           

The level of core inflation reflecting influence of monetary factors on price level, in the first half of 2015 has made 0,4 %, having decreased to the similar period of previous year on 2,8 percentage points. Annual core inflation for this period has reached 0,07 %, that in compare to the same period of previous year is less on 4,0 percentage points.

The rate of national currency. Starting from the second half of 2014 to the present time it has been observed increase of external rate pressure, which connected with the external economic factors, especially strain geopolitical situation in Russia and instability of economic growth of countries - trading partners. In turn, the given situation resulting unbalanced movement of the foreign capital and course fluctuations in developed economies.

During press conference it has been underlined that despite taken measures in the first half of current year was observed steady decline tendency of the TJS, and its official rate in relation to US dollar has depreciated from TJS 5,3074 to TJS 6,2602 (18,0 %).

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The market rate of cash foreign currency for 1 US dollar has changed from TJS 5,4600 to TJS 6,5300 or by 19,6 %. At the same time, for this period the official rate of Somoni against Euro has decreased by 8,8 % and Russian ruble on 31,8 %.

The National Bank of Tajikistan taking into account preservation of stable price level and for the purpose of maintenance of continuous activity of internal currency market and stability of financial system of the country within the limits of current legislation regularly takes measures in relation to maintenance of stability and purchasing capacity of national currency, regulation and control over performance of specifications and procedures of realization of operations with foreign currency in the internal currency market.

The balance of payments. The foreign trade turnover in January-June of current year has made USD 2 009,1 million, having decreased in compare with the similar period of last year on 21,9 %. The volume of foreign trade turnover with CIS countries has decreased on 13,4; and with the far abroad countries on 28,6 %.

According to data of the Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, the export volume of goods for the reporting period has made USD 434,4 million which is less on 7,9% against same period of previous year. Goods import has made USD 1 574,7 million, having decreased in comparison with the similar period of last year on 25,0 %. In this connection, the trade balance of this period has developed negatively, having made USD 1 140,3 million which is less on 38,4% in compare with same period of last year.

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2. Monetary policy

For the first half of 2015, in connection with an economic and financial situation the National Bank of Tajikistan implemented a stable monetary policy, having directed its activity on preservation of money supply in circulation, inflation rate stability and restriction of steady rate.

In this connection, for this period the refinancing rate remained without changes at the level of 8,0 % and the volume of legal reserve requirements for maintenance of banking system liquidity and assistance to growth of crediting for deposits in national and foreign currencies has remained without changes at the level of 2,0 % and 8,0 % per annum accordingly.

Also, for this period it has been issued microcredits (till 3 months) to domestic banks for TJS 415,8 million and 30,0 million Russian rubles by National Bank of Tajikistan, which promoted maintenance of credit institutions liquidity.

Reserve money, which is one of the basic indicators of monetary policy as of June 30, 2015 has made TJS 6,7 billion that in comparison with similar date of last year is more on 13,4% (According to the Forecast of monetary policy of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2015 the increase of this indicator in 2015 has been provided by 16 %).

3. Banking system development

For the reporting period banking system activity of the country first of all was directed on stability of financial situation of credit institutions, small and medium business support and internal and foreign investments attraction.

Also it has been noticed that as of July 1, 2015 in territory of the country functions 17 banks, 120 microfinancial institutions, 1 non-bank credit institution, 348 branches and 1249 centers of banking services. In comparison with the similar date of last year quantity of banks and the microfinancial institutions remained without changes, quantity of bank branches and centers of banking services has increased by 16 and 223 units accordingly.

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The total assets of credit institutions as of July 1, 2015 have made TJS 17,3 billion that in compare with the same date of last year is more on 15,1 %. The total liabilities and balance capital of credit institutions have made TJS 14,7 billion and TJS 2,6 billion that in comparison with the similar period of last year is less on 20,1 % and on 7,3 % accordingly.

During press conference it has been noticed that the National Bank of Tajikistan takes necessary measures in relation to credit institutions which do not meet the requirements of the banking legislation and legal acts. According to the Decision of the Board of the National Bank of Tajikistan from June 25, 2015 in connection with default of the above-stated requirements by the MDO “Hamdasti” and “Moliya va Sarmoya” for 1 year have been stopped right to conduct operations on attraction of deposits and savings of individuals and legal entities and micro-crediting. Also, due to repeated assumption of lacks in transfer of cash foreign currency of clients abroad without opening of the banking account, by the Decision of the Board of the National Bank of Tajikistan from July 10, 2015 it was suspended operations on remittances MDO "Matin" LLC for 1 year.

Deposits. Chairman of the National Bank of Tajikistan has paid attention of journalists that the total balance of deposits as of July 1, 2015 has made TJS 7,8 billion that in comparison with similar date of previous year is more on 30,6 %. The volume of deposits balance against same period of previous year in national currency has increased by 21,7 % and in foreign currency of 34,9 %. Their share in structure of the deposits balance in national currency has made 30,2 % and in foreign currency of 69,8%.

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It should be noted that the volume of deposits of individuals and legal entities in compare with same date of last year is more on 22,4 % and 46,9 % accordingly. Their share in the structure of deposits balance has made 62,5 and 37,5 % accordingly.

Provision of crediting. It was underlined that the volume of total credits balance for the end of the first half of 2015 has made TJS 11,0 billion which in compare with the similar date of previous year is more on 26,5 %.

The volume of issued credits for the first half of 2015 has made TJS 6,8 billion, having increased in compare with the similar period of last year by 28,7 %. The volume of repaid loans for the reporting period has reached TJS 5,6 billion, and total collection rate has made 82,1 % of issued credits for this period that in compare with the same period of last year is more on 4,3 percentage points.

Issued credits for this period have been directed on various branches of economy. Including: industry of 24,5 %, foreign trade turnover of 19,5 %, construction of 18,6 %, consumption of 11,7 %, agriculture of 9,6 %, financial intermediary of 4,1 %, transport of 7,6 %, services of 2,8 % and other spheres of 1,6 %.

In modern conditions financing of industrial business and development of real sector of a national economy is one of the basic and priority issues of banking system. From total amount of the issued credits by banks for this period 56,4 % or TJS 3 844,7 million falls to industrial business.

Mr. Jamshed Nurmahmadzoda has noticed that growth of granting of long-term credits (more than one year) is one of positive factors of economy growth and stability of financial system of the country. Year from a year the long-term credits balance growing, and for the reporting period they have made (TJS 5,8 billion) 47,3 % from the total balance of credits.

Payment system. In the territory of the republic in the first half of 2015 have been made more than 29,3 million units of payments by various ways of calculations for TJS 317,2 billion that in compare with the similar period of previous year the quantity of payments has increased by 34,9 % and volume of payments on 31,6%.

For this period, it has been continued activity of National payment system «KORTI MILLI», and for the end of the period the total quantity of participants of this system has reached 16 units. By the credit institutions – participants of the NPS «KORTI MILLI» there have been issued 759 243 units of national cards which is more on 72,4% against same period of previous year.

            As of July 1, 2015 by the credit institutions for service of banking payment cards owners, in total it has been set 732 units of ATM’s and 1882 units of electronic terminals (including, in cash issuing points 1 356 units and 526 units in points of trade and granting of services), and in comparison with similar date of last year the quantity of ATM’s has increased on 76 units and electronic terminals by 566 units.         

Reorganization of the National Bank of Tajikistan. For the purpose of increase of efficiency of employees activity, ordering of structures, elimination of duplicating functions, correct selection and arrangement of employees, elimination of the conflict of interests, by the Decision of the Board of the National Bank of Tajikistan from June 25, 2015 №114 had been confirmed new structure of the National Bank of Tajikistan. According to this Decision the new structure of the National Bank of Tajikistan will start its work from September 1, 2015. In new structure of 197 vacancies will be reduced, activity of some structural divisions which have no direct relation to bank management will conduct its activity on the bases of self-financing.

It should be noted that in new structure of the National Bank of Tajikistan the special attention is given to issues of consumer protection of banking services and for this purpose it was established new Consumer Protection Division.

The NBT’s interrogations. For the purpose of studying of opinion of credit institutions’ experts, ministries and agencies, in general, all citizen of the country, have been conducted number of interrogations for an estimation of separate sectors of banking system. Including, in separate column of official website of the National Bank of Tajikistan placed interrogations, concerning magazine «Banking in Tajikistan», «Banking statistical bulletin», «Balance of payments and external debt of the Republic of Tajikistan», «Rate policy of the National Bank of Tajikistan in 2015», and «Activity of National Bank of Tajikistan in monetary policy», and currently this interrogation are estimated from experts and clients.

Measures on rehabilitation of the National Bank of Tajikistan activity. For the purpose of financial situation rehabilitation and carrying out of reforms in the National Bank of Tajikistan, the Strategic Plan on rehabilitation of the National Bank of Tajikistan activity for 2015-2019 has been developed. The given Plan covers all aspects of activity of the National Bank of Tajikistan and consists of 12 basic parts.

According to the requirements of this Plan, it is planned to implement reforms in various sectors for realization of an effective monetary policy, perfection of instruments, improvement of monetary risks management, capital regulation, dedollarization of economy and increases of population trust to national currency. Also within the limits of the Strategic plan it will be studied current laws on banking system and necessary measures on their improvement, especially regarding introduction of modern automated interbank system of remittances and development of law «On Payment Services and Payment System».

Magazine "Banking in Tajikistan". On behalf of and direct support of new Management of Bank with the account of modern world requirements, maintenance of information magazine «Banking in Tajikistan» will be reversed and now it will be published in a new format and with the new maintenance under the name «Banking Development Globalization». In new magazine will be published various analytical articles in three languages (Tajik, Russian and English), having world value. The electronic version of magazine also will be placed on official website of the National Bank of Tajikistan.

In final part of conversation which has passed in interesting condition, foreign and local journalists have received concrete answers to the questions concerning news in banking system, international reserves volume of the country, changes in structure of the National Bank of Tajikistan, remittances from labor migrants, change of exchange rates, attraction of foreign investments into economy of republic, rise in prices on world and home markets, rate of inflation, percent on credits in national currency, use of payment cards, volume of money supply in circulation and maintenance of safety of deposits.

Press-service  
NBT



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